15 picks: 5 free, 10 premium (10 hidden until start, 0 already started).
The day's board is published once, at 9:00 AM Central (Mexico City time), after the morning runs of the algorithm: every pick of the day is ranked by expected value, ranks 1 to 10 are premium (hidden until the game starts, then shown in the public record like every other pick), ranks 11 to 15 are free, and the rest is not published. Picks that appear later in the day are not published either. A tier never changes once the board is out.
NHL · NHLOct 29, 7:37 PM ETfree
Roman Kantserov Under 0.5 assists
Chicago Blackhawks @ Detroit Red Wings · Player prop · assists
- Odds taken
- 1.37 (-271) Pinnacle
- Fair odds
- 1.29
- Worst odds worth taking
- 1.35
- Expected value
- +6.2%
- Stake
- 1.75u
sharp no-vig 70.3%, model 89.8% -> 77.6% blended, EV +6.2%. proj 0.12 per game (11.8 games eff.) vs line 0.5 (market-implied 0.35; last games 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0). Pinnacle 1.37 (limit 250), overround 6.9%. Drivers: xG rates: DET 3.10…
Full reasoning
Roman Kantserov Under 0.5 assists (full game) at 1.37 on Pinnacle; fair 1.29, worth taking down to 1.35. sharp no-vig 70.3%, model 89.8% -> 77.6% blended, EV +6.2%. proj 0.12 per game (11.8 games eff.) vs line 0.5 (market-implied 0.35; last games 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0). Pinnacle 1.37 (limit 250), overround 6.9%. Drivers: xG rates: DET 3.10 for / 3.02 against per 60, CHI 2.66 / 3.41; goalies John Gibson (?; GSAx +2.5% on 114.2 xG faced); vs Arvid Soderblom (?; GSAx -8.8% on 59.5 xG faced). Caution: goalie unconfirmed.
NBA · NBAOct 29, 8:10 PM ETfree
Jalen Johnson Under 21.5 points
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks · Player prop · points
- Odds taken
- 2.00 (+100) Bovada
- Fair odds
- 1.88
- Worst odds worth taking
- 1.96
- Expected value
- +6.5%
- Stake
- 0.75u
sharp no-vig 49.8%, model 59.5% -> 53.2% blended, EV +6.4%. proj 20.54 per game (12.1 games eff.) vs line 21.5 (market-implied 21.69; last games 12.42, 21.42, 26.42, 19.42, 20.42, 18.42, 12.42, 21.42). Pinnacle 1.88 (limit 250), overround…
Full reasoning
Jalen Johnson Under 21.5 points (full game) at 2.00 on Bovada; fair 1.88, worth taking down to 1.96. sharp no-vig 49.8%, model 59.5% -> 53.2% blended, EV +6.4%. proj 20.54 per game (12.1 games eff.) vs line 21.5 (market-implied 21.69; last games 12.42, 21.42, 26.42, 19.42, 20.42, 18.42, 12.42, 21.42). Pinnacle 1.88 (limit 250), overround 7.0%. Drivers: ratings ATL off +1.4 / def +2.4 (net +3.8, 5 gp) vs CLE off +1.4 / def -0.1 (net +1.3, 4 gp); prior weight 8 games; pace 106.0, ATL 114.2 / CLE 109.3 per 100 -> model spread ATL -5.2, total 236.8 (home court +2.5); injuries ATL: Mouhamed Gueye OUT (3.7 ppg, 13 min); Henri Veesaar OUT (no value data) -> -0.4; CLE: none -> +0.0 (home margin).
NBA · NBAOct 29, 8:10 PM ETfree
Zach LaVine Under 21.5 points
Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans · Player prop · points
- Odds taken
- 2.05 (+105) Bovada
- Fair odds
- 1.93
- Worst odds worth taking
- 2.02
- Expected value
- +6.3%
- Stake
- 0.50u
sharp no-vig 51.3%, model 52.8% -> 51.8% blended, EV +6.3%. proj 21.65 per game (11.8 games eff.) vs line 21.5 (market-implied 21.51; last games 21.34, 36.34, 21.34, 27.34, 10.34, 34.34, 16.34, 16.34). Pinnacle 1.83 (limit 250), overround…
Full reasoning
Zach LaVine Under 21.5 points (full game) at 2.05 on Bovada; fair 1.93, worth taking down to 2.02. sharp no-vig 51.3%, model 52.8% -> 51.8% blended, EV +6.3%. proj 21.65 per game (11.8 games eff.) vs line 21.5 (market-implied 21.51; last games 21.34, 36.34, 21.34, 27.34, 10.34, 34.34, 16.34, 16.34). Pinnacle 1.83 (limit 250), overround 6.9%. Drivers: ratings NO off -2.3 / def -2.1 (net -4.4, 4 gp) vs SAC off -3.5 / def -5.5 (net -8.9, 4 gp); prior weight 8 games; pace 103.9, NO 116.0 / SAC 109.0 per 100 -> model spread NO -7.3, total 233.8 (home court +2.5); home on a back-to-back (-2.5). Caution: star injury SAC.
NBA · NBAOct 29, 8:10 PM ETfree
Domantas Sabonis Under 14.5 rebounds
Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans · Player prop · rebounds
- Odds taken
- 1.80 (-125) Bovada
- Fair odds
- 1.70
- Worst odds worth taking
- 1.78
- Expected value
- +5.9%
- Stake
- 0.75u
sharp no-vig 56.8%, model 62.6% -> 58.8% blended, EV +5.9%. proj 13.41 per game (11.8 games eff.) vs line 14.5 (market-implied 14.03; last games 13.74, 14.74, 18.74, 17.74, 14.74, 6.74, 11.74, 6.74). Pinnacle 1.67 (limit 250), overround…
Full reasoning
Domantas Sabonis Under 14.5 rebounds (full game) at 1.80 on Bovada; fair 1.70, worth taking down to 1.78. sharp no-vig 56.8%, model 62.6% -> 58.8% blended, EV +5.9%. proj 13.41 per game (11.8 games eff.) vs line 14.5 (market-implied 14.03; last games 13.74, 14.74, 18.74, 17.74, 14.74, 6.74, 11.74, 6.74). Pinnacle 1.67 (limit 250), overround 6.9%. Drivers: ratings NO off -2.3 / def -2.1 (net -4.4, 4 gp) vs SAC off -3.5 / def -5.5 (net -8.9, 4 gp); prior weight 8 games; pace 103.9, NO 116.0 / SAC 109.0 per 100 -> model spread NO -7.3, total 233.8 (home court +2.5); home on a back-to-back (-2.5). Caution: star injury SAC.
NBA · NBAOct 29, 10:10 PM ETfree
Toumani Camara Over 11.5 points
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers · Player prop · points
- Odds taken
- 2.02 (+102) Pinnacle
- Fair odds
- 1.90
- Worst odds worth taking
- 1.98
- Expected value
- +6.4%
- Stake
- 0.75u
sharp no-vig 45.9%, model 68.8% -> 52.7% blended, EV +6.4%. proj 15.03 per game (11.4 games eff.) vs line 11.5 (market-implied 11.32; last games 12.57, 19.57, 18.57, 8.57, 15.57, 5.57, 18.57, 30.57). Pinnacle 2.02 (limit 250), overround…
Full reasoning
Toumani Camara Over 11.5 points (full game) at 2.02 on Pinnacle; fair 1.90, worth taking down to 1.98. sharp no-vig 45.9%, model 68.8% -> 52.7% blended, EV +6.4%. proj 15.03 per game (11.4 games eff.) vs line 11.5 (market-implied 11.32; last games 12.57, 19.57, 18.57, 8.57, 15.57, 5.57, 18.57, 30.57). Pinnacle 2.02 (limit 250), overround 7.0%. Drivers: ratings POR off +2.4 / def +2.2 (net +4.5, 3 gp) vs MEM off -1.4 / def +0.9 (net -0.5, 4 gp); prior weight 8 games; pace 104.4, POR 114.3 / MEM 106.8 per 100 -> model spread POR -7.8, total 230.7 (home court +2.5); injuries POR: Chris Youngblood OUT (2.5 ppg, 6 min); Shaedon Sharpe OUT (19.4 ppg, 29 min) -> -2.6; MEM: none -> +0.0 (home margin). Caution: star injury POR.
Premium
The top ten of every day
Sent to the premium channel as they are published, with the same odds, worst price worth taking, stake and reasoning as the free picks. Launch prices, kept while you stay subscribed. Checkout and delivery run through Whop and Discord.
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Past results don't guarantee future results. The full record, wins and losses, is below.
NHL · NHLOct 29, 7:07 PM ETPremium
Hidden until start
Winnipeg Jets @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Selection, price and reasoning appear here when the game starts, and in the record afterwards.
NBA · NBAOct 29, 8:10 PM ETPremium
Hidden until start
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks
Selection, price and reasoning appear here when the game starts, and in the record afterwards.
NFL · NFLOct 29, 8:15 PM ETPremium
Hidden until start
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Selection, price and reasoning appear here when the game starts, and in the record afterwards.
NFL · NFLOct 29, 8:15 PM ETPremium
Hidden until start
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Selection, price and reasoning appear here when the game starts, and in the record afterwards.
NFL · NFLOct 29, 8:15 PM ETPremium
Hidden until start
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Selection, price and reasoning appear here when the game starts, and in the record afterwards.
NFL · NFLOct 29, 8:15 PM ETPremium
Hidden until start
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Selection, price and reasoning appear here when the game starts, and in the record afterwards.
NHL · NHLOct 29, 10:07 PM ETPremium
Hidden until start
Buffalo Sabres @ Anaheim Ducks
Selection, price and reasoning appear here when the game starts, and in the record afterwards.
NHL · NHLOct 29, 10:07 PM ETPremium
Hidden until start
Ottawa Senators @ Los Angeles Kings
Selection, price and reasoning appear here when the game starts, and in the record afterwards.
NBA · NBAOct 29, 10:10 PM ETPremium
Hidden until start
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers
Selection, price and reasoning appear here when the game starts, and in the record afterwards.
NBA · NBAOct 29, 10:10 PM ETPremium
Hidden until start
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers
Selection, price and reasoning appear here when the game starts, and in the record afterwards.
Sharp price first
Every market is de-vigged from the sharp book before a model gets a say. A pick exists only when the best available price clears the required edge.
A price to beat
Each pick carries the worst odds still worth taking. At that number or better, take it; below it, pass. No chasing.
Judged by the close
Closing line value is recorded for every pick, the fastest honest signal of whether picks beat the market, long before results can.